Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

Scaife, A. A.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Baldwin, M. P.; Brookshaw, A.; Butler, A. H.; Eade, R.; Gordon, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Martin, N.; Dunstone, N.; Smith, D.

doi:10.1002/asl.598

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

2016
By Scaife, A. A. ; Karpechko, A. Yu. ; Baldwin, M. P. ; ...
Source: Atmospheric Science Letters, 17(1), 51-56.

[PDF-3.59 MB]

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Journal Title:

Atmospheric Science Letters
Personal Author:

Scaife, A. A. ; Karpechko, A. Yu. ; Baldwin, M. P. ; Brookshaw, A. ; Butler, A. H. ; ... More +

Scaife, A. A. ; Karpechko, A. Yu. ; Baldwin, M. P. ; Brookshaw, A. ; Butler, A. H. ; Eade, R. ; Gordon, M. ; MacLachlan, C. ; Martin, N. ; Dunstone, N. ; Smith, D. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; CSD (Chemical Sciences Division)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; CSD (Chemical Sciences Division) Less -
Description:

We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of -6.5 and +4.8 hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hind-casts if members containing SSW events are excluded.
Source:

Atmospheric Science Letters, 17(1), 51-56.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598
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Journal Article
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CC BY
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Submitted
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urn:sha256:b7cd0dba5d64904770b2054d8065a2826aa530a15eb16f376f53e4d80c4e4f5d
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Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere

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