i
Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations
-
Published Date:
2018
Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(3), 1595-1601.
- File Format:
- RIS
Details:
-
Personal Author:
-
Description:An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity. Plain Language Summary Even if we remove the uncertainty associated with human behavior, we still don't know exactly how hot it is going to get. This is because warming associated with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide triggers climate changes that themselves can accelerate or decelerate the warming. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is defined as the eventual warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, and it is tempting to estimate this quantity from recent observations. However, in climate models, the ECS inferred from recent decades is lower than the eventual warming for two reasons. First, it takes the climate many centuries to fully come to equilibrium, and models indicate that we should expect even more warming in the future. Second, the conditions experienced in the real world seem to have given rise to especially low estimates of ECS, perhaps purely by chance. Climate models indicate that not only are ECS estimates based on recent decades lower than the eventual warming, but they may not even be predictive of that warming. A climate model that shows strong warming in response to recent real-world conditions does not necessarily have high long-term sensitivity, and vice versa.
-
Document Type:
-
Main Document Checksum:urn:sha256:4a55ae27214a6120ad9f5ae55b2457e89f584887a190557a17d763b337d0c3cb
- File Type:
-
Supporting Files:No Additional Files
Related Documents:
-
-
Personal Author:Dieng, D. ; Laux, P. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(15), 7950-7973.Description:In this study, we analyze a set of agroclimatological indices across West Africa and assess their projected changes for the future. We apply the regio...
Personal Author:Kenagy, H. S. ; Sparks, T. L. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(17), 9813-9827.Description:Although urban NOx lifetimes have been examined extensively during summertime conditions, wintertime NOx chemistry has been comparatively less studied...
Personal Author:Kim, J. ; Johnson, L. E. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Water, 10(7), 21.Description:Soil moisture retention (SMR) capacity plays a key role in estimating the direct runoff when a multi-pulse storm event occurs. It is very important to...
Personal Author:Fairall, C. W. ; Matrosov, S. Y. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 35(3), 593-608.Description:The NOAA W-band radar was deployed on a P-3 aircraft during a study of storm fronts off the U.S. West Coast in 2015 in the second CalWater (CalWater-2...
Personal Author:Mahoney, K. ; Swales, D. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Climate, 31(16), 6281-6297.Description:Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are well-known producers of precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Depending on their intensity, orientation, and location ...
Personal Author:Byju, P. ; Dommenget, D. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(15), 7683-7691.Description:Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in portions of the extratropics are known to recur from one winter to the next without persisting through the...
Personal Author:Richardson, K. ; Asmutis-Silvia, R. ; ...Published Date:2019Source:Marine Pollution Bulletin, 138, 222-229.Description:Abandoned, lost or discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) comprises a significant amount of global marine debris, with diverse impacts to marine environments,...
Personal Author:Chakraborty, A. ; Ervens, B. ; ...Published Date:2016Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(8), 4317-4332.Description:Size-resolved fog water samples were collected in two consecutive winters at Kanpur, a heavily polluted urban area of India. Samples were analyzed by ...
Personal Author:Heiblum, R. H. ; Altaratz, O. ; ...Published Date:2016Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(11), 6336-6355.Description:We study the evolution of warm convective cloud fields using large eddy simulations of continental and trade cumulus. Individual clouds are tracked a ...
Personal Author:Hartery, S. ; Commane, R. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(1), 185-202.Description:Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas but its emissions from northern regions are still poorly constrained. In this study, we anal...
Personal Author:Jordan, C. E. ; Pszenny, A. A. P. ; ...Published Date:2015Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 120(2), 678-694.Description:The Nitrogen, Aerosol Composition, and Halogens on a Tall Tower campaign (February-March 2011) near Boulder, Colorado, investigated nighttime ClNO2 pr...
Personal Author:Membrive, O. ; Crevoisier, C. ; ...Published Date:2017Source:Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 10(6), 2163-2181.Description:An original and innovative sampling system called AirCore was presented by NOAA in 2010 (Karion et al., 2010). It consists of a long (> 100 m) and nar...
Personal Author:Dias, J. ; Gehne, M. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Monthly Weather Review, 146(6), 1763-1784.Description:Despite decades of research on the role of moist convective processes in large-scale tropical dynamics, tropical forecast skill in operational models ...
Personal Author:Creamean, J. M. ; Maahn, M. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(2), 555-570.Description:The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, yet the processes that contribute to the enhanced warming are not well understood. Arctic aerosols have bee...
Personal Author:Seviour, W. J. M. ; Davis, S. M. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1106-1113.Description:Climate models predict that the Hadley circulation will expand poleward in a warmer climate, a trend which may cause significant changes in global pre...
Personal Author:Buchholz, R. R. ; Hammerling, D. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123(17), 9786-9800.Description:In the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, the main contribution to carbon monoxide (CO) variability is from fire emissions, which are connected to clima...
Personal Author:Fay, A. R. ; Lovenduski, N. S. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Biogeosciences, 15(12), 3841-3855.Description:The Southern Ocean is highly under-sampled for the purpose of assessing total carbon uptake and its variability. Since this region dominates the mean ...
Personal Author:England, M. ; Polvani, L. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Journal of Climate, 31(16), 6353-6370.Description:Models project that Antarctic sea ice area will decline considerably by the end of this century, but the consequences remain largely unexplored. Here,...
Personal Author:Silvern, R. F. ; Jacob, D. J. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(9), 4466-4474.Description:Observations from the SEAC(4)RS aircraft campaign over the southeast United States in August-September 2013 show NO/NO2 concentration ratios in the up...
Personal Author:Basu, S. ; Baker, D. F. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(10), 7189-7215.Description:We estimate the uncertainty of CO2 flux estimates in atmospheric inversions stemming from differences between different global transport models. Using...
-
You May Also Like:
-
Personal Author:Andrews, T. ; Gregory, J. M. ; ...Published Date:2018Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 45(16), 8490-8499.Description:Eight atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with observed historical (1871-2010) monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice varia...