Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Dong, Yue; Armour, Kyle C.; Proistosescu, Cristian; Andrews, Timothy; Battisti, David S.; Forster, Piers M.; Paynter, David; Smith, Christopher J.; Shiogama, Hideo

doi:10.1029/2021gl095778

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Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

2021
By Dong, Yue ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Proistosescu, Cristian ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 48(24)

[PDF-2.30 MB]

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Details:

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Dong, Yue ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Proistosescu, Cristian ; Andrews, Timothy ; Battisti, David S. ; ... More +

Dong, Yue ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Proistosescu, Cristian ; Andrews, Timothy ; Battisti, David S. ; Forster, Piers M. ; Paynter, David ; Smith, Christopher J. ; Shiogama, Hideo Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred
Keywords:

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General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48(24)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl095778
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA20OAR4310391
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Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:cf41c2fbdbb9f85f2f5b3b19378bccf27d1e3bb66cf136ca89dff6fab6adbb13
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53026/noaa_53026_DS1.pdf
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