Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

Iskandarani, Mohamed; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Thacker, William Carlisle; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar M.

doi:10.1002/2015jc011573

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Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

2016
By Iskandarani, Mohamed ; Le Hénaff, Matthieu ; Thacker, William Carlisle ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(7), 4819-4832.

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Personal Author:

Iskandarani, Mohamed ; Le Hénaff, Matthieu ; Thacker, William Carlisle ; Srinivasan, Ashwanth ; Knio, Omar M.

Iskandarani, Mohamed ; Le Hénaff, Matthieu ; Thacker, William Carlisle ; Srinivasan, Ashwanth ; Knio, Omar M. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) Less -
Description:

Abstract Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate's reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days.
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(7), 4819-4832.
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jc011573
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA15OAR4320064
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urn:sha256:d965a8b709b690adc6053d398ca1638608e0ce68e145297e59d24793fa739775
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Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

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