Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (-1 x 1 degrees) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies > 10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >= 500 km(2) of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, > 75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.
Meinen, C. S.; Garzoli, S. L.; Perez, R. C.; Campos, E.; Piola, A. R.; Chidichimo, M. P.; Dong, S. F.; Sato, O. T.;
Published Date:
2017
Source:
Ocean Science, 13(1), 175-194.
Description:
The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) at 34.5 degrees S in the South Atlantic carries a significant fraction of the cold deep limb of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and therefore its variability affects the meridional heat transport...
This study examines the causes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic between 1982 and 2015. The emphasis is on the boreal winter and spring seasons, when tropical Atlantic SSTs project strongly onto the At...
Kourafalou, V. H.; Androulidakis, Y. S.; Halliwell, G. R.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M. M.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R.; Lumpkin, R.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Progress in Oceanography, 148, 1-25.
Description:
A high resolution, free-running model has been developed for the hurricane region of the North Atlantic Ocean. The model is evaluated with a variety of observations to ensure that it adequately represents both the ocean climatology and variability ov...
Androulidakis, Y.; Kourafalou, V.; Halliwell, G.; Le Henaff, M.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M.; Atlas, R.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Ocean Dynamics, 66(12), 1559-1588.
Description:
The evolution of three successive hurricanes (Katia, Maria, and Ophelia) is investigated over the river plume area formed by the Amazon and Orinoco river outflows during September of 2011. The study focuses on hurricane impacts on the ocean structure...
Trinanes, J. A.; Olascoaga, M. J.; Goni, G. J.; Maximenko, N. A.; Griffin, D. A.; Hafner, J.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Journal of Operational Oceanography, 9(2), 126-138.
Description:
Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared in March 2014. Potential sites of where the plane entered the water are considered within a vast region of the Indian Ocean. We present a methodology to assess the potential crash site based on where airpla...
Volkov, D. L.; Lee, S. K.; Landerer, F. W.; Lumpkin, R.;
Published Date:
2017
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 44(2), 927-936.
Description:
The persistent energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, inferred from satellite measurements, indicates that the Earth's climate system continues to accumulate excess heat. As only sparse and irregular measurements of ocean heat below 2000m dep...
Leidner, S. M.; Nehrkorn, T.; Henderson, J.; Mountain, M.; Yunck, T.; Hoffman, R. N.;
Published Date:
2017
Source:
Monthly Weather Review, 145(2), 637-651.
Description:
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultations (RO) over the last 10 years have proved to be a valuable and essentially unbiased data source for operational global numerical weather prediction. However, the existing sampling coverage is...
Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 121(10), 7547-7559.
Description:
The seasonal variability of the Florida Current (FC) transport is often characterized by the presence of an average annual cycle (8% of the variance) of approximate to 3 Sv range peaking in boreal summer. However, the seasonality displayed by the FC ...
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(2), 333-351.
Description:
The in situ generation of easterly waves (EWs) in the east Pacific (EPAC) is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The sensitivity of the model to the suppression of EW forcing by locally generated convective disturbanc...
Laurent, A.; Fennel, K.; Cai, W. J.; Huang, W. J.; Barbero, L.; Wanninkhof, R.;
Published Date:
2017
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, 44(2), 946-956.
Description:
Nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system into the northern Gulf of Mexico promote high phytoplankton production and lead to high respiration rates. Respiration coupled with water column stratification results in seasonal summer h...
Pendleton, L.; Comte, A.; Langdon, C.; Ekstrom, J. A.; Cooley, S. R.; Suatoni, L.; Beck, M. W.; Brander, L. M.; Burke, L.; Cinner, J. E.; Doherty, C.; Edwards, P. E. T.; Gledhill, D.; Jiang, L. Q.; van Hooidonk, R. J.; Teh, L.; Waldbusser, G. G.; Ritter, J.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
PLOS ONE, 11(11), 21.
Description:
Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature ...
Enochs, I. C.; Manzello, D. P.; Kolodziej, G.; Noonan, S. H. C.; Valentino, L.; Fabricius, K. E.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 283(1842), 8.
Description:
Ocean acidification (OA) impacts the physiology of diverse marine taxa; among them corals that create complex reef framework structures. Biological processes operating on coral reef frameworks remain largely unknown from naturally high-carbon-dioxide...
Heron, S. F.; Maynard, J. A.; van Hooidonk, R.; Eakin, C. M.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Scientific Reports, 6, 38402.
Description:
Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef co...
Putman, N. F.; Lumpkin, R.; Sacco, A. E.; Mansfield, K. L.;
Published Date:
2016
Source:
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 283(1844), 20161689.
Description:
Predictions of organismal movements in a fluid require knowing the fluid's velocity and potential contributions of the organism's behaviour (e.g. swimming or flying). While theoretical aspects of this work are reasonably well-developed, field-based v...
Heron, Scott Fraser; Eakin, C. M. (Carlon Mark); Douvere, Fanny; Anderson, Kristen L., 1959-; Day, Jon C.; Geiger, Erick; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Van Hooidonk, Ruven; Hughes, Terry; Marshall, Paul, 1969-; Obura, David O.;
Corporate Authors:
United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,. Coral Reef Conservation Program (U.S.). World Heritage Centre.
Published Date:
2017
Description:
"Since 1972, the UNESCO World Heritage Convention has united the world around a shared responsibility to protect natural and cultural places of Outstanding Universal Value (OUV). The World Heritage List includes 29 natural, marine properties that con...
Beyer, H. L.; Kennedy, E. V.; Beger, M.; Chen, C. A.; Cinner, J. E.; Darling, E. S.; Eakin, C. M.; Gates, R. D.; Heron, S. F.; Knowlton, N.; Obura, D. O.; Palumbi, S. R.; Possingham, H. P.; Puotinen, M.; Runting, R. K.; Skirving, W. J.; Spalding, M.; Wilson, K. A.; Wood, S.; Veron, J. E.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.;
Corporate Authors:
United States, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,. Coral Reef Conservation Program (U.S.).
Published Date:
2018
Source:
Conservation Letters, e12587.
Description:
Abstract Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long-term strategic plan for the cons...
Storlazzi, C. D.; Cheriton, O. M.; van Hooidonk, R.; Zhao, Z.; Brainard, R.;
Published Date:
2020
Source:
Scientific Reports, 10(1)
Description:
Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become ...
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate oceanographic processes that control temperature and productivity in tropical waters, yet potential interactions with low frequency climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO...
United States. National Marine Fisheries Service,. Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (U.S.). United States, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,. Coral Reef Conservation Program (U.S.).
Published Date:
2020
Series:
PIFSC Special Publication ; SP-20-002b
Description:
We present an analysis of exposure, resilience, and social vulnerability to climate change threats for the coral reefs of Guam, relative to the rest of the U.S. Pacific. We focus primarily on the increases in ocean temperatures and the impact of cora...
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