The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook
-
2015
-
-
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 8042-8048.
[PDF-503.31 KB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.
-
Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 8042-8048.
-
DOI:
-
Document Type:
-
Rights Information:Other
-
Compliance:Library
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
