| Assessment of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOMX HAB-OFS) : a comparative analysis of forecast skill and utilization from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2014 - :14756 | National Ocean Service (NOS)
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Assessment of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOMX HAB-OFS) : a comparative analysis of forecast skill and utilization from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2014
  • Published Date:
    2016
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Assessment of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOMX HAB-OFS) : a comparative analysis of forecast skill and utilization from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2014
Details:
  • Corporate Authors:
    Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (U.S.)
  • Description:
    "This report provides an evaluation of the HAB-OFS products issued for Florida during the bloom years from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2014, with a comparative analysis of previously published data for October 1, 2004 to April 30, 2008 to relate the results across all years (Fisher, et al., 2006; Kavanaugh, et al., 2013). A bloom year (BY) refers to the time period from May 1, XXXX to April 30, YYYY, where BY2008-2009 spans the period from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2009 and so on. This time period was selected to capture the typical initiation and termination period of K. brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico, enabling interannual comparisons. The analysis includes an assessment of bulletin utilization, early warning capability and forecast quality (i.e. accuracy, reliability, and skill). Previous publications have detailed the technology, models, and procedures that underlie the Florida HAB-OFS (Stumpf, et al., 2003; Tomlinson, et al., 2004; Stumpf, Litaker, Lanerolle, & Tester, 2008; Stumpf R. , et al., 2009). The results of this assessment will be used to guide enhancements to the operational forecast system with the goals of improving forecast quality through increased scientific understanding and the refinement of forecast models. Some of the recommendations may also be applicable to the HAB-OFS in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas)"--Page 2 (Objective).

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