| Annual report of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOM HAB-OFS) : October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2005 (Operational Year #1) - :14755 | National Ocean Service (NOS)
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Annual report of the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOM HAB-OFS) : October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2005 (Operational Year #1)
  • Published Date:
    2006
Filetype[PDF-1.04 MB]


Details:
  • Corporate Authors:
    Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (U.S.)
  • Description:
    "On October 1, 2004, a harmful algal bloom forecast system for the Gulf of Mexico was successfully transitioned from research to operational status, creating the Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (GOM HAB-OFS). During the following 52 week period 114 operational bulletins, containing 131 bloom forecasts, were disseminated to coastal resource managers, state and federal officials, and academic and research institutions. Two harmful and two non-harmful blooms were accurately identified by HAB forecasters and confirmed by in situ sampling. Bulletin utilization was confirmed for 90% of the total operational weeks and 78% of the total bulletins disseminated. 33 high priority bulletins containing pertinent information due to new bloom appearance or significant change in bloom location or intensity were disseminated with 93% confirmed utilization. In addition to overall utilization of the bulletin, success of the operational bulletins can be broken down into various forecast components to help determine needed enhancements to the system. A coastal impact forecast statement was included in 93% of the total bulletins produced, of which 54% were assessable and 98% of those assessable were confirmed accurate. Bloom transport was included in 83% of all forecasts, of which 66% were assessable and 93% of those assessable were confirmed accurate. Bloom intensification was included in 43% of all forecasts, of which 63% were assessable and 72% of those assessable were confirmed accurate. Change in spatial extent was included in 25% of all forecasts, of which 48% were assessable and 81% of those assessable were confirmed accurate. 90% of the total component forecasts disseminated were confirmed accurate. The results of this assessment will be utilized to enhance the operational forecast system, improving the accuracy of individual forecast components through increased bloom knowledge and advanced technology, as well as exploring additional methods to better assess the accuracy of issued forecasts"--Executive Summary.

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