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Data and analysis errors on 9 January 1977
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1977
[PDF-1.82 MB]
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Description:"Forecasts from 00Z 9 January 1977 formed one of the six cases used in the May 1977 tests to select the most promising successor to the 6-level PE model. This case was selected because of strong east coast cyclogenesis, locked-in error in the eastern United States, and cross-contour flow at 300 mb in the PE over the western United States. A retrospective look at the initial data and model performance for this case uncovered four analysis problems which very likely occur in other cases: (1) Much too high water temperatures off the New England coast in the data that NMC gets from NESS. (2) Probable underestimate of an important vorticity center at 500 mb in northwest Canada in the Flattery analysis. (3) Incorrect Flattery wind analyses in the initial trough over the Rockies. (4) Too cold low-level thickness temperatures in the Flattery analysis in the northwestern Pacific. These errors are documented here in order to focus attention on improving these aspects of our analysis system. They are discussed individually after a general review of the synoptic situation and general model performance in this case. They lead to several recommendations.
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Content Notes:N. Phillips, K. Campana, and M. Mathur.
"August 1977."
"This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members."
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
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Rights Information:Public Domain
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