A  modified threat score and a measure of placement error

Shuman, Frederick G.

i

A modified threat score and a measure of placement error

1980
By Shuman, Frederick G.
Series: Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) 210

Details

Personal Author:

Shuman, Frederick G.
Corporate Authors:

National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)
Description:

"It is well known and can easily be shown that, with present forecast techniques and accuracy, higher threat scores can be achieved by increasing the bias above unity. Figure 1 indicates the effect of increased bias on threat score. For instance, it indicates that a forecast with unit bias and with threat score of 0.2, can be improved to a threat score of 0.27 by increasing the bias to 2.6. Skill, therefore, cannot be judged by threat scores alone, but only in consideration with other statistics, especially bias"--Introduction.
Content Notes:

Frederick G. Shuman.

"February 1980."

"This is an unreviewed manuscript, primarily intended for informal exchange of information among NMC staff members."

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Includes bibliographical references.
Keywords:

Mathematical Models Numerical Analysis Numerical Weather Forecasting Quality Control Weather Forecasting Mathematical Models Numerical Analysis Numerical Weather Forecasting Quality Control Weather Forecasting
Series:

Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) 210
Document Type:

Office Note
Rights Information:

Public Domain
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:6314f2a60db7b81c79c7744ad716881ddf063b5ef1388b5f8280ebe48ef3394c
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/12158/noaa_12158_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.43 MB ]

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