Impact of analysis errors over data sparse eastern Pacific ocean on the ETA model's forecasts

Mathur, Mukut B.; Black, Thomas; Gerrity, Joseph P.; Baldwin, Mike

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Impact of analysis errors over data sparse eastern Pacific ocean on the ETA model's forecasts

1993
By Mathur, Mukut B. ; Black, Thomas ; Gerrity, Joseph P. ; ...
Series: Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 399

[PDF-1.49 MB]

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Personal Author:

Mathur, Mukut B. ; Black, Thomas ; Gerrity, Joseph P. ; Baldwin, Mike

Mathur, Mukut B. ; Black, Thomas ; Gerrity, Joseph P. ; Baldwin, Mike Less -
Corporate Authors:

National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Less -
Description:

Predictions from the Eta model in which analysis errors over the data sparse eastern Pacific Ocean induce forecast errors over the western United States in the shorter range (12-24 h) and over the eastern United States in the longer range (36-48 h) are discussed. The forecast errors that first appear in a trough (ridge) in middle and upper tropospheric westerlies over the west coast of the United States propagate eastward with the trough (ridge). The errors amplify when they reach a baroclinic zone and affect the development of predicted surface storms. A procedure that may help forecasters judge relative accuracy of two forecasts valid at the same time, one of the shorter range than the other, is also presented.
Content Notes:

Makut B. Mathur, Thomas J. Black, Joseph P. Gerrity, Mike Baldwin.

"August 1993."

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Includes bibliographical references (page 10).
Keywords:

[+]

Mathematical Models Numerical Analysis Numerical Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasting
Series:

Office note (National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.)) ; 399
Document Type:

Office Note
Place as Subject:

United States
Rights Information:

Public Domain
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Library
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urn:sha256:bb746ce9837dda9cde8a935dd23272310ff2a4fee30705ed25a7c84377c295a2
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/11439/noaa_11439_DS1.pdf
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Impact of analysis errors over data sparse eastern Pacific ocean on the ETA model's forecasts

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