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Budget study of the mean short range forecast error of the NMC MRF model
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    A complete budget of the NMC global model forecast systematic error was performed. The budget calculations were directly coded into the operational forecast model, and the systematic errors of the temperature, winds and moisture were diagnosed using 90 N.H. summer cases and 60 winter cases of 1990. The model was integrated for 24 hours and budget calculations were performed at the model sigma levels every time step and accumulated. One of the important but disappointing results is that this method cannot provide the exact cause of the error. The reason is that there is strong interaction between various terms in the budget equations, particularly between physical processes and the dynamics, and therefore the pattern of one term does not match that of the systematic error. Because of this, the detection of the cause of the systematic error requires highly subjective judgment. Despite this weakness of the approach, this study provided many very useful hints for the improvement of the model. Examples of the problems detected include imbalance between radiative cooling and sensible heating near the land surface, imbalance between radiative cooling and adiabatic warming in the middle troposphere in subtropics and false model response to localized heating due to insufficient horizontal resolution. Based on this study, many of these problems are corrected and the systematic errors of the NMC MRF model were significantly reduced.

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