Developing and Evaluating First-Guess Watch Guidance Within SPC Operations

Harrison, David, R.; Jirak, Israel L.; Marsh, Patrick T.

doi:10.25923/fkzg-kt33

i

Developing and Evaluating First-Guess Watch Guidance Within SPC Operations

Details

Personal Author:

Harrison, David, R. ; Jirak, Israel L. ; Marsh, Patrick T.
Corporate Authors:

Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations. ; Storm Prediction Center (U.S.) ; University of Oklahoma.
NOAA Program & Office:

CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The existing first-guess watch guidance aids forecasters in deciding when and where to issue a convective watch product, but it does not provide any assistance in determining whether a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch is preferred. Krocak and Brooks (2021) found that the type of watch issued prior to severe weather occurrence often has considerable influence on the performance and lead time of warnings issued later in the event. However, the optimal watch type is not always obvious in conditional or rapidly evolving convective environments. To address the challenge, this study attempts to expand upon the existing first-guess watch guidance by training a new ML model to predict whether a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm watch is recommended.
Keywords:
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25923/fkzg-kt33
Format:

pdf
Document Type:

Non-series Report
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4320204
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76790/noaa_76790_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 636.61 KB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:739a28d8867adf2e0ae808db7a810690ee814e860a81828090f3ae2419977589ab83237a864b8c335ddaad5bab9dcaf8441c978ee1554b39a1f8cb83f194b2aa

ON THIS PAGE

Details

Found an issue?

Send us an email at:

noaa.repository@noaa.gov

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.