Developing an updated analog-based severe weather forecast system

Details

• Personal Author:
  Nixon, Cameron J. ; Jirak, Israel L. ; Jewell, Ryan E. ; Moore, Andrew D.
• Corporate Authors:
  Storm Prediction Center (U.S.) ; Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations.
• Conference Authors:
  32nd Conference on Severe Local Storms (2026)
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations)
• Description:
  An updated sounding analog system that uses the full sounding profile to find close analogs and predict a variety of potential hazard characteristics shows promise in offering considerable value to forecasters. Much of this value comes not just from its ability to predict the conditional intensity of hazards, but its ability to provide more holistic predictions of hazard behavior (including track length, duration, and motion) than is possible using more traditional environmental parameters.
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.25923/vcs3-qn92
• Format:
  pdf
• Document Type:
  Miscellaneous
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76575/noaa_76575_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.85 MB]
• Collection(s):
  NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:6269429cde9e26452e6a14cc11e4ec95626ec71862ac432280e7ee9c69cc86db3d1e505b786911ce661a69ece68e1fd25e425542a9f55c02962f75f1f3e9201e