Assimilating Boundary Layer Observations from Uncrewed Aerial Systems in the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System

Details

• Journal Title:
  Weather and Forecasting
• Personal Author:
  Tweedie, Jordan ; Yussouf, Nusrat ; Bell, Tyler ; Wang, Yaping ; Matilla, Brian ; Kerr, Christopher ; Stratman, Derek
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
• Description:
  One challenge of current state-of-the-art convection-allowing NWP ensemble modeling systems is the inadequate representation of storm environments. This is largely due to the limited availability of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observations at high spatial and temporal resolution. In recent years, emerging weather-sensing uncrewed aerial systems (WxUAS) have shown promise in measuring the lower ABL temperature, moisture, and winds. This study explores the impact of assimilating CopterSonde WxUAS measurements collected from three severe weather events during the PERiLS and OUTFLOW field campaigns into NOAA's experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The WxUAS measurements are assimilated into retrospective WoFS data assimilation and prediction experiments, alongside all other observations used in the baseline WoFS. The results show that assimilating WxUAS observations leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of the shape, location, and intensity of reflectivity and rotation features. Notably, the extent of low-level moisture advection is more accurately captured in the OUTFLOW case. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential of using in-situ WxUAS ABL observations to improve short-term probabilistic predictions of severe weather. However, these findings are not yet generalizable, and further studies are needed to evaluate their robustness by assimilating a broader network of WxUAS ABL measurements across a diverse set of cases.
• Source:
  Weather and Forecasting (2026)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0210.1
• ISSN:
  0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  American Meteorological Society
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Other
• Compliance:
  Library
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76141/noaa_76141_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.98 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:12209c52d4f3683f16ea8619a99219793d0668ded21aefdc83b8ac357a548c5cd5c02e2348a542956135a638bcc18f6a632e98f92fc9f085386e770f72705636