Low latency global carbon budget reveals land sink decline during 2023 to 2024 El Niño

Ke, Piyu; Ciais, Philippe; Yao, Yitong; Sitch, Stephen; Li, Wei; Xu, Yidi; Du, Xiaomeng; Gui, Xiaofan; Bastos, Ana; Zaehle, Sönke; Poulter, Ben; Colligan, Thomas; Van Der Woude, Auke M.; Peters, Wouter; Liu, Zhu; Jin, Zhe; Tian, Xiangjun; Wang, Yilong; Liu, Junjie; Pandey, Sudhanshu; O'Dell, Chris; Bian, Jiang; Zhou, Chuanlong; Miller, John B.; Lan, Xin; Goncalves De Souza, Jefferson; O'Sullivan, Michael; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Van Der Werf, Guido R.; Peters, Glen P.; Piao, Shilong; Chevallier, Frédéric

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.117053

i

Low latency global carbon budget reveals land sink decline during 2023 to 2024 El Niño

2026
By: Ke, Piyu ; Ciais, Philippe ; Yao, Yitong
Source: iScience, 29(8), 117053

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Journal Title:

iScience
Personal Author:

Ke, Piyu ; Ciais, Philippe ; Yao, Yitong ; Sitch, Stephen ; Li, Wei ; Xu, Yidi ; Du, Xiaomeng ; Gui, Xiaofan ; Bastos, Ana ; Zaehle, Sönke ; Poulter, Ben ; Colligan, Thomas ; Van Der Woude, Auke M. ; Peters, Wouter ; Liu, Zhu ; Jin, Zhe ; Tian, Xiangjun ; Wang, Yilong ; Liu, Junjie ; Pandey, Sudhanshu ; O'Dell, Chris ; Bian, Jiang ; Zhou, Chuanlong ; Miller, John B. ; Lan, Xin ; Goncalves De Souza, Jefferson ; O'Sullivan, Michael ; Friedlingstein, Pierre ; Van Der Werf, Guido R. ; Peters, Glen P. ; Piao, Shilong ; Chevallier, Frédéric
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; GML (Global Monitoring Laboratory)
Description:

El Niño droughts can weaken tropical land carbon uptake and accelerate atmospheric CO 2 growth. We updated the low-latency global CO 2 budget through June 2024 using near-real-time fossil emissions, four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), ocean carbon emulators, and three OCO-2 atmospheric inversions. From July 2023 to June 2024, atmospheric CO 2 grew by 3.66 ± 0.09 ppm yr −1 , the highest July-to-July rate since 1979; after detrending, the anomaly was 1.1 ppm yr −1 , comparable to previous major El Niño events. The anomaly was mainly driven by a 2.24 GtC yr −1 weakening of the net land sink, partly offset by 0.38 GtC yr −1 stronger ocean uptake. The tropics accounted for 97.5% of the land anomaly, led by the Amazon, central Africa, and Southeast Asia. This update shows how recent El Niño droughts drove the high CO 2 growth rate through mid-2024 and how low-latency budgets can track carbon cycle extremes.
Source:

iScience, 29(8), 117053
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.117053
ISSN:

2589-0042
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Pubmed ID:

42621130
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC13486359
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4320151
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/76110/noaa_76110_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 6.00 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:ccc9839cbe4ea2dfc9c96c95e76db49304281d72d10250a3d67da247b415fa61e8df47a863d039649a7cbfe1ac4baf50981e80850d34c5295949ef9c48782259

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