Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Details

• Journal Title:
  Nature
• Personal Author:
  Perry, Chris T. ; De Bakker, Didier M. ; Webb, Alice E. ; Comeau, Steeve ; Harvey, Ben P. ; Cornwall, Christopher E. ; Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo ; Pérez-Cervantes, Esmeralda ; Morris, John ; Enochs, Ian C. ; Toth, Lauren T. ; O'Dea, Aaron ; Dillon, Erin M. ; Meesters, Erik H. ; Precht, William F.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CoRIS (Coral Reef Information System)
• Description:
  Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk 1,2 . This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors 3 . Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability 4,5 . Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2-4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3-0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7-1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth 6,7 , but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3-0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.
• Source:
  Nature, 646(8085), 619-626
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09439-4
• ISSN:
  0028-0836 ; 1476-4687
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Springer Science and Business Media LLC
• Pubmed ID:
  40963009
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Library
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/74483/noaa_74483_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 9.49 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e282957f68505f76438c06bb87474858fe80e817077c0c56ea58cc9febf51b60a39dc5d4c7f22240a460b68c6eb400431eff472bebfe581f71c1563a637f151b