Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

Klotzbach, P. J.; Silvers, L. G.; Bercos‐Hickey, E.; Allen, C. J. T.; Bell, M. M.; Blake, E. S.; Bloemendaal, N.; Bowen, S. G.; Chand, S. S.; Chavas, D. R.; Ekström, M.; Hemmati, M.; Jones, J. J.; Lowry, M. R.; Patricola‐DiRosario, C. M.; Schreck, C. J.; Truchelut, R. E.; Wood, K. M.

doi:10.1029/2025GL120183

i

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

2026
By Klotzbach, P. J. ; Silvers, L. G. ; Bercos‐Hickey, E. ; Allen, C. J. T. ; Bell, M. M. ; Blake, E. S. ; Bloemendaal, N. ; Bowen, S. G. ; Chand, S. S. ; Chavas, D. R. ; Ekström, M. ; Hemmati, M. ; Jones, J. J. ; Lowry, M. R. ; Patricola‐DiRosario, C. M. ; Schreck, C. J. ; Truchelut, R. E. ; Wood, K. M.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 53(4)

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Klotzbach, P. J. ; Silvers, L. G. ; Bercos‐Hickey, E. ; Allen, C. J. T. ; Bell, M. M. ; Blake, E. S. ; Bloemendaal, N. ; Bowen, S. G. ; Chand, S. S. ; Chavas, D. R. ; Ekström, M. ; Hemmati, M. ; Jones, J. J. ; Lowry, M. R. ; Patricola‐DiRosario, C. M. ; Schreck, C. J. ; Truchelut, R. E. ; Wood, K. M.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CISESS (Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies) ; NCICS (North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center)
Description:

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC‐conducive African easterly jet.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 53(4)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120183
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/73684/noaa_73684_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.57 MB]
Collection(s):

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a95a688d3fcf58b6be7a0d5f283254ecb9d164a88c238a39046be54dc5e1040cb9e955f6a126ed19e73cf6ebee2069398eaf50fc5f23f28e2be7eb1f05f831a2

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