A statistical representation of oil spill fate in the Salish Sea (Part 2)

Mueller, Rachael D.; Allen, Susan E.; Chang, Stephanie; Niu, Haibo; Latornell, Douglas J.; Li, Shihan; Bagshaw, Ryah; Bhudia, Ashutosh; Do, Vicky; Forysinski, Krista; Moore-Maley, Ben; Power, Cameron

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118410

i

A statistical representation of oil spill fate in the Salish Sea (Part 2)

2025
By Mueller, Rachael D. ; Allen, Susan E. ; Chang, Stephanie ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Marine Pollution Bulletin
Personal Author:

Mueller, Rachael D. ; Allen, Susan E. ; Chang, Stephanie ; Niu, Haibo ; Latornell, Douglas J. ; Li, Shihan ; Bagshaw, Ryah ; Bhudia, Ashutosh ; Do, Vicky ; Forysinski, Krista ; Moore-Maley, Ben ; Power, Cameron
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service)
Description:

We use a novel approach that combines Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship traffic data, state regulated oil transfer data, and a suite of numerical models to statistically represent the risk of spilled Alaska North Slope Crude, Bunker-C, and Marine Diesel under a variety of environmental conditions in an estuarine environment off the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We show the statistics of fate and transport outcomes based on 10,000 MOHID oil spill model simulations with currents, winds, and waves between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. Each of the 10,000 oil spill scenarios was run individually and includes weathering from biodegradation, dissolution, dispersion, emulsification, evaporation, and spreading. Our pioneering approach captures statistical variability in seasonality, vessel traffic, spill locations, and oil types. We show that heterogeneity of 3D circulation in an estuarine environment, combined with marine traffic “footprints”, creates regionally-variable signatures of the timing, likelihood and type of potential oiling.
Source:

Marine Pollution Bulletin, 221, 118410
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118410
ISSN:

0025-326X
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a73693e57b56010ce2b969264ec7e7b20c3014ac6f87d78064c16406852ce6f90374923543b76af44e27e739dc60f7aa9f56640302fe2b1f0c9c98170aff6456
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/73545/noaa_73545_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.11 MB ]

ON THIS PAGE

Details

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

BACK TO TOP