U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
Official websites use .gov

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

i

Initialized Seasonal Prediction with the NCAR Models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)



Select the Download button to view the document
Please click the download button to view the document.

Details

  • Journal Title:
    Weather and Forecasting
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    This study investigates the seasonal prediction capabilities of three models, all developed by the National Science Foundation (NSF) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and implemented by the University of Miami, within the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) framework. All three models, Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), CCSM4, and Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), are initialized using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and have a common period of 1991–2018. The models’ performance in predicting key climate variables including surface temperature, precipitation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections is assessed. The models’ prediction skill is assessed using the sign test, a robust nonparametric method for comparing forecast errors. CCSM4 succeeded CCSM3 in 2014, bringing a much more accurate representation of global temperature trends and improved prediction of precipitation extremes and 2-m temperature over land. CESM1, introduced in 2023, shows further improvement relative to CCSM4 in the prediction of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and precipitation extremes over land. The improvement in precipitation prediction skill is encouraging, as this field has seen little improvement over the life of the NMME. The modeled similarity to observed ENSO teleconnection patterns of 2-m temperature is somewhat less in CESM1 than in CCSM4, although precipitation teleconnection patterns are similar. CCSM4 and CESM1 show stronger surface temperature trends in the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean than observed trends over the same period, a common problem for current state-of-the-art climate models with implications for prediction and for climate projections.
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 40(6), 889-900
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA18OAR4310275
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:36ac24bda362bd7668b596d20f46628999e8fa38b19e569f033b2294b01d2b4ac46e7349a2b9adb30e6598137d4f9eed84456211afe0c8ad012e252b1d69f9b2
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 39.58 MB ]
PREVIOUS
ON THIS PAGE
Details
The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
BACK TO TOP