Importance of Ocean Initialization in ENSO Predictions: Accuracy Versus Consistency

Sun, Shan; Liu, Yanyun; Zhu, Jieshun; Wang, Wanqiu; Pegion, Philip; Barton, Neil

doi:10.1029/2025GL116972

i

Importance of Ocean Initialization in ENSO Predictions: Accuracy Versus Consistency

2025
By Sun, Shan ; Liu, Yanyun ; Zhu, Jieshun ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Sun, Shan ; Liu, Yanyun ; Zhu, Jieshun ; Wang, Wanqiu ; Pegion, Philip ; Barton, Neil
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; WPO (Weather Program Office)
Description:

Ocean initialization (OI) plays a crucial role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. This study investigates both the importance of OI accuracy and the detrimental effect of initialization shock caused by discretization differences between the OI generator and the forecast model, a developmental version of NOAA's next‐generation operational Seasonal Forecast System (SFS). Thirty years of hindcasts for May and November initializations are analyzed. Three ocean reanalysis products, ORAS5, ORAS5‐Replay (hereafter “Replay”), and GLORe, are tested for initialization. Although GLORe is less accurate than ORAS5 and Replay in representing the ocean state, it is the most consistent with SFS and produces the highest ENSO forecast skill at longer lead times for May initialization. These results suggest that minimizing initialization shock is as important as achieving accurate initial conditions for improving seasonal ENSO forecasts.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 52(16)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116972
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:969e8adcb7bc995550c2247ce587bf244d328062c4f3d4dd481b9af7479e0a4cd26a65af9895014801b1f826917c06ac8982fa834e08cde048a461754187be0e
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/73121/noaa_73121_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.79 MB ]

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