What shapes flood risk perceptions? Comparing public perceptions with FEMA flood hazard maps in the U.S.

Khan, Masood Ali; Zia, Asim; Merrill, Scott C.; Koliba, Christopher; Balerna, Jessica A.; Quainoo, Ruth; Soares, Rodrigo; Shrum, Trisha

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105941

i

What shapes flood risk perceptions? Comparing public perceptions with FEMA flood hazard maps in the U.S.

2026
By: Khan, Masood Ali ; Zia, Asim ; Merrill, Scott C.
Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 132, 105941

Details

Journal Title:

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Personal Author:

Khan, Masood Ali ; Zia, Asim ; Merrill, Scott C. ; Koliba, Christopher ; Balerna, Jessica A. ; Quainoo, Ruth ; Soares, Rodrigo ; Shrum, Trisha
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CIROH (Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology)
Description:

Flooding remains one of the most damaging natural hazards, underscoring the need for a better understanding of public perceptions of flood risk to support preparedness and mitigation. This study compares risk perceptions from a national online survey of 918 respondents with FEMA flood maps. We define the risk perception gap as the difference between respondents' perceived flood risk and FEMA's flood zone classifications, and we examine its drivers. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess how socioeconomic characteristics, spatial context, and latent variables from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) influence whether individuals perceive their flood risk as higher, lower, accurate, or express uncertainty about it. Many residents living in FEMA-designated floodplains perceive their flood risk as lower.
Source:

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 132, 105941
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105941
ISSN:

2212-4209
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22NWS4320003
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/72738/noaa_72738_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.35 MB]
Collection(s):

NOAA Cooperative Institutes ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a30ec33716a50b00b17dfd8853a0302bb9353561a786b93a2a522f78e6b65b4e676357d8ca41c50cda2bf2c85b01cb12c78a9efd157fc624594b3a60de274f3c

ON THIS PAGE

Details

Found an issue?

Send us an email at:

noaa.repository@noaa.gov

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

BACK TO TOP