Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Sweeney, Aodhan; Fu, Qiang; Solomon, Susan; Po‐Chedley, Stephen; Randel, William J.; Steiner, Andrea; Lin, Pu; Birner, Thomas; Davis, Sean; Wang, Peidong

doi:10.1029/2025AV001737

i

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

2025
By Sweeney, Aodhan ; Fu, Qiang ; Solomon, Susan ; ...

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Journal Title:

AGU Advances
Personal Author:

Sweeney, Aodhan ; Fu, Qiang ; Solomon, Susan ; Po‐Chedley, Stephen ; Randel, William J. ; Steiner, Andrea ; Lin, Pu ; Birner, Thomas ; Davis, Sean ; Wang, Peidong
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory)
Description:

Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st‐century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer‐Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower‐stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower‐stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.
Source:

AGU Advances, 6(4)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001737
ISSN:

2576-604X ; 2576-604X
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:53b3573cb185896b925e2f3c9ab4d21857ae7644cf5de57a4837fbf9945b4f12f59f8f113e67a0a3fc623f6df4a3826fdf2dc3e60c424f6eb06c68d7c65246cf
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71530/noaa_71530_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.56 MB ]

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