Potential for Regional Resilience to Ocean Warming and Acidification Extremes: Projected Vulnerability Under Contrasting Pathways and Thresholds

Olson, Elise M.; John, Jasmin G.; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.; Drenkard, Elizabeth J.

doi:10.1111/gcb.70360

i

Potential for Regional Resilience to Ocean Warming and Acidification Extremes: Projected Vulnerability Under Contrasting Pathways and Thresholds

2025
By Olson, Elise M. ; John, Jasmin G. ; Dunne, John P. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Global Change Biology
Personal Author:

Olson, Elise M. ; John, Jasmin G. ; Dunne, John P. ; Stock, Charles A. ; Drenkard, Elizabeth J.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

We analyze the frequency and amplitude of projected warming and ocean acidification extremes under high CO2 and strongly mitigating scenarios. We find interpretational differences in projections arising from methodological choices associated with specification of stressor thresholds. Use of absolute versus distribution‐based thresholds, and, in the distribution‐based case, the inclusion or exclusion of seasonal variability, can lead to very different regional patterns in projected stress. The choice of fixed versus adaptive baseline, for example, determines whether future stress frequency in the low‐CO2 scenario most closely resembles that in the high‐emissions scenario or historical period. We find that mitigation through emissions reductions, in combination with representation of rates of adaptation that are realistic for some marine organisms, has the potential to dampen end of century threshold exceedance to frequencies of occurrence closer to the recent historical period than to the high‐emissions scenario.
Source:

Global Change Biology, 31(7)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70360
ISSN:

1354-1013 ; 1365-2486
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Wiley
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA18OAR4320123 ; Grant no. NA23OAR4320198
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:2f76fa008ec241d9d31a9c0e64cc1860a65c3483ec3ffd9862fca665fe0d01bf94bf007259cd0924c8dd318e74c334075b97f7b53239ac372395143c4c359089
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71323/noaa_71323_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 6.08 MB ]

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