Design considerations for a continuous mussel farm in New England Offshore waters. Part II: Using validated numerical models to estimate the probability of failure

Details

• Journal Title:
  Aquacultural Engineering
• Personal Author:
  Sunny, Richards C. ; Fredriksson, David W. ; Tsukrov, Igor ; Zhu, Longhuan ; Bowden, Matthew ; Chambers, Michael ; Silkes, Bill
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NEFSC (Northeast Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  In response to stakeholder conflicts, coastal pollution, and spatial constraints limiting sustainable nearshore aquaculture, offshore farms have emerged as a potential solution. However, offshore farms are exposed to energetic wave–current conditions and require a rigorous engineering approach to reduce failure risk. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the risk of structural failure of offshore mussel farms in response to extreme wave and current conditions using a representative mussel farm design in New England offshore waters. This includes a three-step methodology: (1) Computational fluid dynamics-derived drag coefficients: 2D OpenFOAM simulations determine normal and tangential drag coefficients for mussel droppers; (2) Hydro-elastic finite-element modeling: a time-domain finite-element model driven by Airy-wave kinematics and Morison loads to predict mooring, mainline, strap, and dropper responses under 10-, 25-, and 50-year return-period wave and current scenarios; and (3) Statistical risk assessment: simulation outputs are interpolated to create a continuous response field across the full range of wave heights and current speeds, which is then integrated with a joint probability density function of significant wave height and current speed – alongside component ultimate and residual strength at three growth phases – to estimate failure probabilities over specified design lives and recommend optimized safety factors. Results indicate that combining accurate drag coefficients with a continuous response surface and joint-PDF risk analysis enables systematic estimation of component failure probabilities and informs appropriate safety-factor selection. Thus, the proposed integrated methodology can be used to quantify structural failure risk and support informed design decisions for reliable offshore aquaculture structures.
• Source:
  Aquacultural Engineering, 111, 102575
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaeng.2025.102575
• ISSN:
  0144-8609
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:2f100c633f845a391e08c9b29d04af9062f23b4f6c0ecc97a72d48051581b353d1ff66c037bc3d2054cab49a746c98137f73df9c865414988b9e375819314c77
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71246/noaa_71246_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 11.37 MB ]