U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
Official websites use .gov

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

i

Evaluation of CAPS Convection-Allowing FV3-LAM Ensembles during the 2022 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment to Inform the Design of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)



Select the Download button to view the document
Please click the download button to view the document.

Details

  • Journal Title:
    Weather and Forecasting
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    To inform the optimization of the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) performed three sets of CONUS-domain 3-km finite-volume cubed-sphere limited-area model (FV3-LAM) ensemble forecasts with various configurations during the 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment in real time. The first set used different physics parameterizations, the second set included additional initial and lateral boundary condition perturbations, and the third introduced additional stochastic physics perturbations. This study evaluates precipitation, temperature, dewpoint, and wind forecasts and compares them to those of the operational High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Precipitation forecasts are verified against NCEP stage-IV precipitation analyses, while temperature, dewpoint, and wind forecasts are verified against Unrestricted Mesoscale Analysis (URMA) surface analyses and radiosonde observations. Overall, the ensemble configurations tested are generally suitable for predicting spring season convective rainfall. The CAPS forecasts generally outperform GEFS in terms of ETS, frequency bias, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, approaching (but not exceeding) the performance of HREF in some metrics. Including stochastic physics perturbations resulted in forecasts objectively very similar to those without such perturbations, except for a small but consistent positive impact on the ensemble spread of surface variables throughout the 84-h forecast period. The CAPS forecasts have a near-neutral to slightly negative bias in total precipitation coverage. Forecasts using the NSSL microphysics scheme have more total rainfall than forecasts using the Thompson scheme and stage-IV analyses, while forecasts using the Noah-MP land surface model generally have lower total precipitation than other forecasts.
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 40(6), 857-874
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:6473a81f1732758d02c20705123c35b46c29b55c40160b5a4695e0e831cf25a977cbe63fbce4a1d07b35d30d800b2fa25a3b2248d91e2163ebe9d96744c5056b
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 26.86 MB ]
PREVIOUS
ON THIS PAGE
Details
The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
BACK TO TOP