Predictable Patterns of Seasonal Atmospheric River Variability Over North America During Winter

Clark, Joseph P.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Park, Mingyu; Bernardez, Miguel; Delworth, Thomas L.

doi:10.1029/2024GL112411

i

Predictable Patterns of Seasonal Atmospheric River Variability Over North America During Winter

2025
By Clark, Joseph P. ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. ; Park, Mingyu ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Clark, Joseph P. ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. ; Park, Mingyu ; Bernardez, Miguel ; Delworth, Thomas L.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated areas of pronounced atmospheric water vapor transport that play an important role in the hydrological cycle over North America during winter. We investigate the sources of winter seasonal AR predictability over North America using average predictability time (APT) analysis. The skill of seasonal AR frequency predictions, in dynamical model forecasts provided by the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research, is nearly entirely attributable to three physically interpretable APT modes that together represent about 19% of the total seasonal AR frequency variance. These three modes represent the AR response to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, anthropogenic forcing and equatorial heating over the eastern flank of the western Pacific warm pool, respectively. We further show that these three modes, calculated from AR frequency, explain nearly all winter seasonal precipitation forecast skill over North America.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 52(7)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112411
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4050663D ; Grant no. NA18OAR4320123
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a9617d582bf7d3469fce540357fd823d4fe8bc8af9051689156290200543ccf66441a5fd0740bcd0df5d56384b6c958d7e14d28f9ca47235fbda11858fe78b0f
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71065/noaa_71065_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.36 MB ]

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