Severe Convective Weather Outbreaks on 10 and 15 December 2021: Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions

Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Galarneau, Thomas J.; Gensini, Vittorio A.

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-24-0213.1

i

Severe Convective Weather Outbreaks on 10 and 15 December 2021: Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions

2025
By Hoogewind, Kimberly A. ; Galarneau, Thomas J. ; Gensini, Vittorio A.

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Journal Title:

Monthly Weather Review
Personal Author:

Hoogewind, Kimberly A. ; Galarneau, Thomas J. ; Gensini, Vittorio A.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)
Description:

The first 2 weeks of December 2021 were exceptionally active for severe convective storms across the central and eastern United States. While previous work has indicated that this was related to the existence of a negative phase of the Pacific–North American pattern, we demonstrate that such a pattern was configured via dynamical linkages between multiple extratropical cyclogenesis events in the western North Pacific, the recurvature of Typhoon Nyatoh, and the subsequent phase evolution of the North Pacific jet. These processes were found to aid in the excitation of Rossby wave packets and the amplification of upper-level flow downstream over the Pacific, ultimately configuring synoptic-scale weather regimes supportive of anomalous high-frequency and high-intensity severe convective weather in the contiguous United States. In addition, abnormally warm Gulf of America/Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures, aided by a period of antecedent synoptic-scale subsidence, played a critical role in enhancing convective instability in the surface warm sector. This work underscores the importance of cataloging these events for purposes of examining (and potentially enhancing) predictability.
Source:

Monthly Weather Review, 153(7), 1171-1194
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0213.1
ISSN:

0027-0644 ; 1520-0493
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4320204
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:ea0076a1e339643e5e84525fa7d5ff01ed2213d0e23820f85cab9c52c6541d1202784c58e1d599deb4c4db8d289f303e0b70b5617d15b7784a3f6b421b856b29
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/71013/noaa_71013_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 24.67 MB ]

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