Randomization method for evaluating the reliability of a recruitment index in an integrated assessment model

Details

• Journal Title:
  Fishery Bulletin
• Personal Author:
  Lee, Huihua ; Piner, Kevin R. ; Maunder, Mark N. ; Fukuda, Hiromu
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  The aim of stock assessment modeling is to evaluate current and future stock statuses under various management scenarios. For these assessments, particularly short-term projections, researchers rely heavily on recruitment estimates. However, accurately estimating recruitment levels, especially for the most recent years, is challenging because reliable information is limited. Indices of relative recruitment can provide valuable insights for stock assessment models in such cases. Herein, a method for assessing the reliability of a recruitment index with diagnostic and randomization tests in an age-structured production model (ASPM) is presented. The proposed method can be used to evaluate whether the process variability implied by a recruitment index for the spawner–recruit relationship enhances the connection between observed catches, indices of adult abundance, and the assessment model’s production function. We applied this approach to Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) as an illustrative example. Results indicate that the ASPM, with recruitment fluctuations matching the recruitment index for the Sea of Japan (ASPM-R-FIX), improved the fits to recent adult abundance indices over those of the standard ASPM models. The results from statistical analysis further provide strong evidence that extreme recruitment fluctuations in the ASPM-R-FIX enhanced predictions for recent indices for adults. This analysis revealed a strong link between recruitment variability and adult abundance, highlighting the importance of adding a consistent recruitment index to an assessment model to improve management decisions.
• Keywords:
  Fishery Management Fish Stock Assessment Fishery Management Fish Stock Assessment Age-structured Production Model Pacific Bluefin Tuna Thunnus Orientalis
• Source:
  Fish. Bull. 123:179–189 (2025)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.7755/FB.123.3.4
• Format:
  PDF
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Japan, Sea of
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:a6f9832ff97a371fa5128bb4a826a9550c399a88423e060bf3c93025a7e42190293a224287fecfdff66e866fc67b44ce2e5cba4179fae7082a0f181bed429ee3
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70984/noaa_70984_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.75 MB ]