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Decrease in MJO Predictability Following Indo–Pacific Warm Pool Expansion



Details

  • Journal Title:
    Geophysical Research Letters
  • Personal Author:
    Kim, Hyemi ORCID ICON IMG
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    The characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have changed and are projected to continue changing with the expansion of the Indo–Pacific warm pool, which is the Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the likelihood of a change in MJO predictability following warm pool expansion remains unaddressed. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of warm pool expansion on MJO variability and predictability using the highly idealized aquaplanet configuration of Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). By expanding the warm pool in the Indo–Pacific, MJO‐like waves become more regionally confined, short‐lived convective events with weaker magnitude and less robust eastward propagating signals, possibly due to stronger zonal SST gradients and wider meridional widths of the warm pool. Perfect‐model ensemble forecast experiments revealed that the MJO predictability decreased by approximately 5 days, the forecast error proliferated, and the signal rapidly reduced following warm pool expansion.
  • Source:
    Geophysical Research Letters, 51(13)
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA22OAR4590168
  • License:
  • Rights Information:
    CC BY
  • Compliance:
    Submitted
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:94a463bec956c79498d4acd9711515bbfa602a7a4583b4444a8c03f8c81cb4b00b3598b482985ee2c8d0f0a346ebff2d3477b80ed116c43bf435381dd6e0cb40
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 2.04 MB ]
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