The Effect of Varying the Probability Threshold for Mentioning Precipitation in the Body of the Forecast

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The Effect of Varying the Probability Threshold for Mentioning Precipitation in the Body of the Forecast

1973
Series: Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.)) 73-4-9

Details

Corporate Authors:

United States. National Weather Service. Eastern Region
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; ER (Eastern Region)
Description:

The threshold probability for mentioning precipitation in the body of a public service forecast has remained at 30% since the implementation of the probability forecast system in the spring of 1966. At that time, it was determined that a forecaster should begin talking about precipitation when he believed its chance of occurrence just exceeded its normal frequency of occurrence (about 20-25% in the Eastern Region).
Keywords:

Precipitation Forecasting Weather Forecasting Precipitation Forecasting Weather Forecasting
Series:

Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.)) 73-4-9
Format:

pdf
Document Type:

Technical Attachment
Place as Subject:

East (U.S.)
License:

https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Rights Information:

CC0 Public Domain
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:1b3a3362a5fcb116dd188adcc3af8e485908990afce0ee13e001cbf3f45a3560e1ebca658df22c9bace1cfb0a6a3273f8ec07094a726b17987869756356b6825
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70761/noaa_70761_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.02 MB ]

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