Temperature Forecast Performance Comparison--Three-Hourly Temperature Forecasts vs. Max/Min Temperature Forecasts in Early FOUS 12 Output

Details

• Personal Author:
  Bowes, Robert F.
• Corporate Authors:
  United States. National Weather Service. Eastern Region
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NWS (National Weather Service) ; ER (Eastern Region)
• Description:
  Calendar day max/min and 3-hourly temperature forecasts have been produced by the MOS technique and available to the field, in the Early FOUS 12 mes- sage, since mid-1978. Although the 3-hourly and max/min temperature equations are derived simultaneously to insure some degree of consistency, con- sistency is not guaranteed, and there are occasional instances in which the 3-hourly forecasts would suggest a lower minimum, or a higher maximum, tem- perature than the max/min forecasts. In order to look at the relative performance of each set of forecasts, a study was conducted for Cincinnati during March 1979. The lowest and highest 3-hourly temperature forecasts in a calendar day and the max/min temperature forecasts were compared to the observed calendar day max/min temperatures.
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Temperature Evaluation Numerical Weather Forecasting Temperature Forecasting, Minimum Atmospheric Temperature Numerical Weather Forecasting Temperature Forecasting, Minimum
• Series:
  Eastern Region technical attachment (National Weather Service (U.S.))   79-09
• Format:
  pdf
• Document Type:
  Technical Attachment
• Place as Subject:
  East (U.S.)
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC0 Public Domain
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9c93feabbbbdf6015ea2200ffbab7ca40b724e9f22d3498082cc3e28b8aebc4e724dba721468edda6895e080144e2fd97285be53d099af7940c0d612cd1a03ab
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70588/noaa_70588_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.41 MB ]