Investigating How NWS Meteorologists, Emergency Managers, and the Public Interpret Conditional Intensity Forecasts for Severe Weather

Ernst, Sean; Fellman, Benjamin J.; Rosen, Zoey; Krocak, Makenzie J.; Jirak, Israel L.; Ripberger, Joseph; Jenkins-Smith, Hank

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0109.1

i

Investigating How NWS Meteorologists, Emergency Managers, and the Public Interpret Conditional Intensity Forecasts for Severe Weather

2025
By Ernst, Sean ; Fellman, Benjamin J. ; Rosen, Zoey ; ...

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Ernst, Sean ; Fellman, Benjamin J. ; Rosen, Zoey ; Krocak, Makenzie J. ; Jirak, Israel L. ; Ripberger, Joseph ; Jenkins-Smith, Hank
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; WPO (Weather Program Office)
Description:

Continued research of severe convective storms has enhanced the forecast capabilities of products like the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) convective outlook. Since 2003, the outlook has presented information about the likelihood of convective hazards within 25 mi of a point, as well as a “hatched” area where a 10% or greater chance of hail larger than 2 in. in diameter, thunderstorm winds greater than 75 mph, or tornadoes of EF2 strength or greater exists. The SPC has begun testing more detailed forecasts of potential storm intensity and is now seeking to design a product that can effectively communicate this new information. To aid in the development of effective intensity forecast information for the SPC outlook, this study conducted surveys and focus groups with members of the public, National Weather Service meteorologists, and emergency managers, recording their feedback on how they thought this information would change their perceived concern and intended behavior on severe weather event days. We also investigated how different presentations of intensity information impact risk perceptions and understanding of the weather event. The inclusion of intensity information increased the perceived concern of members of the public and emergency managers. Changes to the way that intensity forecast visuals were presented also impacted perceived concern and likelihood of response, suggesting that caution must be taken in deciding what the operational version of the convective outlook should look like.
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 40(3), 507-524
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0109.1
ISSN:

0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4590173
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:b5ee8eb7f044c50fed12f5ea40820407954a329f203a0dd44d8c199d7bc7013b688c5281d9d65be5441e88b4e04ba2311d991ecb9337922749b528ae5582f072
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70231/noaa_70231_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 18.08 MB ]

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