Application of Ensemble Sensitivity for Hurricane Track Forecast Sensitivity and Flight Planning

Torn, Ryan D.; Brennan, Michael J.; Dunion, Jason P.

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0179.1

i

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity for Hurricane Track Forecast Sensitivity and Flight Planning

2025
By Torn, Ryan D. ; Brennan, Michael J. ; Dunion, Jason P.

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Torn, Ryan D. ; Brennan, Michael J. ; Dunion, Jason P.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory) ; CIMAS (Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center) ; WPO (Weather Program Office)
Description:

The forecast motion of tropical cyclones (TCs) critically depends on the evolution of the layer-averaged steering flow, which is associated with features proximate and remote to the TC. Given this, it is of interest to objectively identify the locations and aspects of the steering flow that will have the biggest impact on subsequent TC track forecasts, which in turn could be used to identify where to take supplemental observations, such as from aircraft, or extra rawinsondes. This paper describes the application of the ensemble-based sensitivity method to evaluate the sensitivity of TC track forecasts, which was used for synoptic surveillance flight planning for 55 potential missions during the 2019–21 seasons. TC track sensitivity can be calculated from either operational ECMWF or GEFS ensemble output (following the GEFS upgrade to version 12). Several automated methods are developed and described that provide sensitivity guidance that is useful and can be quickly interpreted, including a time-integrated track metric, and defining the steering wind within a coordinate framework along the axis of greatest position variability or vorticity. For the majority of cases, the sensitivity to the steering wind is maximized within 500 km of the TC center, particularly in the vicinity of nearby weaknesses in the subtropical ridge, with comparatively less sensitivity to upstream midlatitude features.
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 40(3), 411-424
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0179.1
ISSN:

0882-8156 ; 1520-0434
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA19OAR4590129
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:48630a725b7d4c90f1aa3ead41bf4a00e9403c607864b982f811b6b12b3bb8b21d6450c6af0443941d9a5f9fec39912a1dd9699d13b83de96b946c6097c7f013
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70228/noaa_70228_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 22.72 MB ]

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