Climate mediates the predictability of threats to marine biodiversity

Details

• Journal Title:
  Trends in Ecology & Evolution
• Personal Author:
  Scales, Kylie L. ; Bolin, Jessica A. ; Dunn, Daniel C. ; Hazen, Elliott L. ; Hannah, Lee ; Schoeman, David S.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.
• Source:
  Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2025)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2025.02.010
• ISSN:
  0169-5347
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Accepted Manuscript
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e06d4f132db33c3404ecbe0438602d462ba59268211533596f085a1ea1b9f3ac20510bd3b6b17b9d56c3cf3df5a11e931b5b30725bbe90eb23a4834e3ca21780
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/70116/noaa_70116_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 218.76 KB ]