ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

Details

• Journal Title:
  Earth System Dynamics
• Personal Author:
  Duffey, Alistair ; Mallett, Robbie ; Irvine, Peter J. ; Tsamados, Michel ; Stroeve, Julienne
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)
• Description:
  The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.
• Source:
  Earth System Dynamics, 14(6), 1165-1169
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
• ISSN:
  2190-4987
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Copernicus GmbH
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:a0602a144b1eafb13f9a639b569680a12603c0ee6bee3a9c6e587209831f1b6332b434997fab466f47a883d695f178576b9dc6643ea6b588786ac4b53e3d3bee
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/69776/noaa_69776_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 862.13 KB ]