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The NEMS GFS aerosol component; NCEP's global aerosol forecast system
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  • Alternative Title:
    NOAA Environmental Modeling System, Global Forecast System aerosol componenet ; NCEP's global aerosol forecast system ;
  • Description:
    "Aerosols affect the radiation budget both directly (through scattering and absorption) and indirectly (through cloud-radiation interaction). Dust-laden Saharan air layer is found to reduce occurrences of deep convection and suppress tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic and Caribbean (Dunion and Velden, 2004). Aerosols may be viewed in their role as air pollutants, regulated by the environmental agencies because of their adverse health effects. Long range transport of aerosol pollutants is found to impact air quality as well as visibility across international borders and across the oceans. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is the cornerstone of the operational production suite of numerical guidance at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The atmospheric forecast model used in the GFS consists of a global spectral model (GSM) with a comprehensive physics suite (Moorthi et al., 2001 with recent upgrades documented at the GFS webpage at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/doc.php). The analysis system used in the GFS is a threedimensional hybrid variational-Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system (Wang et al., 2013). The physical processes crucial for modeling the aerosol effects are, however, either poorly represented or missing in NCEP's global forecast and assimilation system. In the forecast model, the aerosol attenuation are determined from prescribed aerosol distributions based on a global climatological aerosol database (Hess et al., 1998) and the aerosol indirect effects on clouds and precipitation formation are not accounted for. Background aerosol conditions are currently assumed in the analysis system. For atmospheric conditions with anomalously high aerosol loading, bias correction and quality control procedures could be compromised due to the unaccounted effects of aerosol attenuation"--Introduction.

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