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Cell Mergers, Boundary Interactions, and Convective Systems in Cases of Significant Tornadoes and Hail
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2024
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Source: Weather and Forecasting, 39(10), 1435-1458
[PDF-4.99 MB]
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Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
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Description:Though discrete supercells are usually emphasized in severe weather forecasting, hazard production is often preceded by their interaction with external features. Past studies have examined the impacts of cell mergers, boundaries, other supercells, convective systems, etc. but usually in isolation. Here, we investigate 230 significant tornadoes, 246 significant hail events, and 191 null cases across the United States using WSR-88D data. We find that in over 90% of cases, supercells that produced significant hazards were accompanied by external features. These features varied between hazards; for example, hailstorms were more frequently near boundaries than tornadic storms. That said, the positions of these features with respect to the storm (and storm-relative inflow) distinguished between hazard potential and type. For example, tornadic storms were predominantly on the more unstable side of a boundary, while nontornadic storms and hailstorms were on the less unstable side. Similarly, tornadic storms had more cells in their rear flanks than forward flanks, while hailstorms had more cells in their forward flanks than rear flanks. Although these conditions were observed regardless of the background environment, they were affected by certain variables in the vertical profile, especially in tornadic cases. Namely, when storm-relative inflow was stronger and lifting condensation level (LCL) was lower, tornadic storms were accompanied by more rear-flank cells that were closer to the storm, more directly opposite the storm-relative inflow, for a longer period of time. We propose that these interactions likely modulate hazard potential, in ways that are not accounted for in traditional environmental parameter-based forecasting.
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Source:Weather and Forecasting, 39(10), 1435-1458
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ISSN:0882-8156;1520-0434;
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Rights Information:Other
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