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Using a Coevolutionary Postprocessor to Improve Skill for Both Forecasts of Surface Temperature and Nowcasts of Convection Occurrence

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  • Journal Title:
    Monthly Weather Review
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    An evolutionary programming postprocessor, using coevolution in a predator–prey ecosystem model, is developed and applied both to 72-h, 2-m temperature forecasts for the conterminous United States and southern Canada and to 60-min nowcasts of convection occurrence for the United States east of 94°W. The new approach improves deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature relative to bias-corrected numerical weather prediction forecasts and to an earlier version of evolutionary programming forecasts for these same data. The new method also improves deterministic performance for an artificial neural network trained and evaluated for these same data. Additionally, the new approach substantially improves these forecasts’ reliability, as evidenced by reductions in the occurrence of excessive outliers in the rank histogram. The coevolutionary postprocessor also improves deterministic nowcasts of convection occurrence when compared to those produced by the National Weather Service’s AutoNowCaster system and to those obtained using multiple logistic regression. Notably, the degree of improvement relative to traditional methods appears to be problem dependent, while the training and implementation of such a system requires additional effort. However, the coevolutionary system is shown to be robust to imbalances between the frequency of positive and null events in the training data, unlike many postprocessing methods; to be implementable and effective in an adaptive mode, removing the need for retraining as inputs (such as numerical weather prediction model data) change; and to provide a useful, alternative perspective on the likelihood of event occurrence when used in combination with other methods.
  • Source:
    Monthly Weather Review, 147(11), 4241-4259
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0027-0644 ; 1520-0493
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:f13d4b94cf8dc61a6d16926a811ebe3cd1d45baa4b04628ab564118699bb1b943749ace1553b5b6912720e40f4c5793fea70ce841338ad78582baf36185152a2
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  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 3.67 MB ]
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