Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

Zhang, Lei; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Emanuel, Kerry

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0496.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

2017
By Zhang, Lei ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; ...
Source: Journal of Climate, 30(4), 1233-1243

[PDF-2.28 MB]

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Journal Title:

Journal of Climate
Personal Author:

Zhang, Lei ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Emanuel, Kerry

Zhang, Lei ; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. ; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. ; Emanuel, Kerry Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
Source:

Journal of Climate, 30(4), 1233-1243
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0496.1
ISSN:

0894-8755;1520-0442;
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pdf
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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urn:sha-512:44bf383cd44cf92c84c3b3ba4b5f6194af682834a6a42927de71c0d5f27f9e7213b1946c73560e8b299a632b7307089aaffe97f640ff0bf6883520fdd2e9175b
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Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models

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