The 21 August 2021 Catastrophic Flash Flood at Waverly, Tennessee: Harnessing the Warn-on-Forecast System for Confident Prewarning Messaging of Extreme Rainfall

Burke, Patrick C.; Barnwell, Joshua; Reagan, Matthew; Rose, Mark A.; Galarneau, Thomas J.; Otto, Richard; Orrison, Andrew

doi:10.1175/bams-d-23-0205.1

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The 21 August 2021 Catastrophic Flash Flood at Waverly, Tennessee: Harnessing the Warn-on-Forecast System for Confident Prewarning Messaging of Extreme Rainfall

2024
By Burke, Patrick C. ; Barnwell, Joshua ; Reagan, Matthew ; ...
Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(10), E1800-E1821

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Journal Title:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Burke, Patrick C. ; Barnwell, Joshua ; Reagan, Matthew ; Rose, Mark A. ; Galarneau, Thomas J. ; ... More +

Burke, Patrick C. ; Barnwell, Joshua ; Reagan, Matthew ; Rose, Mark A. ; Galarneau, Thomas J. ; Otto, Richard ; Orrison, Andrew Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; HPC (Weather Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; HPC (Weather Prediction Center) ; NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Less -
Description:

On the morning of 21 August 2021, extreme rainfall spurred a flood wave on Trace Creek that ravaged Waverly, Tennessee, causing 19 fatalities. Peak 24-h rainfall of 526 mm was recorded just upstream at McEwen, setting the Tennessee 24-h state rainfall record. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and a Flash Flood Watch were issued 16 and 8 h, respectively, before rain began; however, predicting mesobeta scale extreme rainfall remains an elusive skill for models and humans alike. Operational convection-allowing models not only suggested pockets of heavy rain but also displayed 1) peak values generally less than half of those observed, 2) widely ranging solutions, and 3) erroneous similarly heavy rain elsewhere. Future use of storm-scale ensembles which use rapid data assimilation promises to help forecasters anticipate extrema that may only be predictable at shorter time scales. This work will examine compelling forecasts from a retrospective run of the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The authors, who include National Weather Service forecasters who worked the event, discuss how WoFS and its probabilistic framework could influence services during low-predictability, high-impact flash floods.
Source:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(10), E1800-E1821
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0205.1
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0003-0007;1520-0477;
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pdf
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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urn:sha-512:f2cc0eb23c98df6c32d802fb1b25f2e442731a297fd7ecca9a20a28b351a2f9df42830784edd4abb81ee0d396d9677959d7fc198efe5db1d390a235ba02fc6b1
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/69265/noaa_69265_DS1.pdf
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The 21 August 2021 Catastrophic Flash Flood at Waverly, Tennessee: Harnessing the Warn-on-Forecast System for Confident Prewarning Messaging of Extreme Rainfall

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