Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

Cooper, Vincent T.; Armour, Kyle C.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Osman, Matthew B.; Proistosescu, Cristian; Dong, Yue; Burls, Natalie J.; Andrews, Timothy; Amrhein, Daniel E.; Zhu, Jiang; Dong, Wenhao; Ming, Yi; Chmielowiec, Philip

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk9461

i

Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

2024
By Cooper, Vincent T. ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; ...

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Journal Title:

Science Advances
Personal Author:

Cooper, Vincent T. ; Armour, Kyle C. ; Hakim, Gregory J. ; Tierney, Jessica E. ; Osman, Matthew B. ; Proistosescu, Cristian ; Dong, Yue ; Burls, Natalie J. ; Andrews, Timothy ; Amrhein, Daniel E. ; Zhu, Jiang ; Dong, Wenhao ; Ming, Yi ; Chmielowiec, Philip
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature (“pattern effects”); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how temperature patterns produce different feedbacks during LGM cooling versus modern-day warming. Combining data assimilation reconstructions with atmospheric models, we show that the climate is more sensitive to LGM forcing because ice sheets amplify extratropical cooling where feedbacks are destabilizing. Accounting for LGM pattern effects yields a median modern-day ECS of 2.4°C, 66% range 1.7° to 3.5°C (1.4° to 5.0°C, 5 to 95%), from LGM evidence alone. Combining the LGM with other lines of evidence, the best estimate becomes 2.9°C, 66% range 2.4° to 3.5°C (2.1° to 4.1°C, 5 to 95%), substantially narrowing uncertainty compared to recent assessments.
Source:

Science Advances, 10(16)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk9461
ISSN:

2375-2548
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:a7959a0e79a50d53604ceae14be726419e5c17013dac823e6c57fbed7cae0fbd8ade399d770ed6bc2001d4abb719e73d24682a8547512c077aa339664690b6f7
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/69136/noaa_69136_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.43 MB ]

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