Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara; Abbott, Benjamin W; Thornton, Brett F; Frederick, Jennifer M; Vonk, Jorien E; Overduin, Paul; Schädel, Christina; Schuur, Edward A G; Bourbonnais, Annie; Demidov, Nikita; Gavrilov, Anatoly; He, Shengping; Hugelius, Gustaf; Jakobsson, Martin; Jones, Miriam C; Joung, DongJoo; Kraev, Gleb; Macdonald, Robie W; David McGuire, A; Mu, Cuicui; O’Regan, Matt; Schreiner, Kathryn M; Stranne, Christian; Pizhankova, Elena; Vasiliev, Alexander; Westermann, Sebastian; Zarnetske, Jay P; Zhang, Tingjun; Ghandehari, Mehran; Baeumler, Sarah; Brown, Brian C; Frei, Rebecca J

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

i

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

2020
By Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara ; Abbott, Benjamin W ; Thornton, Brett F ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Environmental Research Letters
Personal Author:

Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara ; Abbott, Benjamin W ; Thornton, Brett F ; Frederick, Jennifer M ; Vonk, Jorien E ; Overduin, Paul ; Schädel, Christina ; Schuur, Edward A G ; Bourbonnais, Annie ; Demidov, Nikita ; Gavrilov, Anatoly ; He, Shengping ; Hugelius, Gustaf ; Jakobsson, Martin ; Jones, Miriam C ; Joung, DongJoo ; Kraev, Gleb ; Macdonald, Robie W ; David McGuire, A ; Mu, Cuicui ; O’Regan, Matt ; Schreiner, Kathryn M ; Stranne, Christian ; Pizhankova, Elena ; Vasiliev, Alexander ; Westermann, Sebastian ; Zarnetske, Jay P ; Zhang, Tingjun ; Ghandehari, Mehran ; Baeumler, Sarah ; Brown, Brian C ; Frei, Rebecca J
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)
Description:

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
Source:

Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124075
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
ISSN:

1748-9326
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

IOP Publishing
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:87179eceb04701a50ceb01c5afe811905abaca934e7d8ea69362b5b969a67d9ee20f2186ba202035fdf0206a2abded1e4d7144b637ccd0433328d9fd2eefc6b8
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68896/noaa_68896_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.89 MB ]

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