Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence

Burgess, Matthew G.; Langendorf, Ryan E.; Moyer, Jonathan D.; Dancer, Ashley; Hughes, Barry B.; Tilman, David

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7

i

Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence

2023
By Burgess, Matthew G. ; Langendorf, Ryan E. ; Moyer, Jonathan D. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Communications Earth & Environment
Personal Author:

Burgess, Matthew G. ; Langendorf, Ryan E. ; Moyer, Jonathan D. ; Dancer, Ashley ; Hughes, Barry B. ; Tilman, David
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. An empirically fitted differential-equation model and an integrated assessment model—International Futures—accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, similar to SSP4 (“Inequality”). For World Bank income groups, the differential-equation model could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund’s short-term forecasts. Both forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century economic growth and income convergence. International Futures projects high poverty and population growth, and moderate energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions, within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway range.
Source:

Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00874-7
ISSN:

2662-4435
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:336c6e8e369651d211544a75e8830388761c3ccca6f202f3c505e0d6d59aa747e445148d6cdb4d326b9805fbd23df5a65031b8d9d87648948e10c30e58ed92b7
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68802/noaa_68802_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 1.55 MB ]

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