Seasonal predictions of summer compound humid heat extremes in the southeastern United States driven by sea surface temperatures

Jia, Liwei; Delworth, Thomas L.; Yang, Xiaosong; Cooke, William; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Zhang, Liping; Joh, Youngji; Lu, Feiyu; McHugh, Colleen

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00723-0

i

Seasonal predictions of summer compound humid heat extremes in the southeastern United States driven by sea surface temperatures

2024
By Jia, Liwei ; Delworth, Thomas L. ; Yang, Xiaosong ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Jia, Liwei ; Delworth, Thomas L. ; Yang, Xiaosong ; Cooke, William ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. ; Zhang, Liping ; Joh, Youngji ; Lu, Feiyu ; McHugh, Colleen
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

Humid heat extreme (HHE) is a type of compound extreme weather event that poses severe risks to human health. Skillful forecasts of HHE months in advance are crucial for developing strategies to enhance community resilience to extreme events1,2. This study demonstrates that the frequency of summertime HHE in the southeastern United States (SEUS) can be skillfully predicted 0–1 months in advance using the SPEAR (Seamless system for Prediction and EArth system Research) seasonal forecast system. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) basin are identified as the primary driver of this prediction skill. The responses of large-scale atmospheric circulation and winds to anomalous warm SSTs in the TNA favor the transport of heat and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the SEUS. This research underscores the role of slowly varying sea surface conditions in modifying large-scale environments, thereby contributing to the skillful prediction of HHE in the SEUS. The results of this study have potential applications in the development of early warning systems for HHE.
Source:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00723-0
ISSN:

2397-3722
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:c8bd36c1ff005181c40de3cc0cb1a26e20f24bc3cb2fbe8abd0b76a91381ae96440855dae742f29544d6b0014a66c094897980c61ee727956115d27bd2d63292
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68795/noaa_68795_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.34 MB ]

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