Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

Esit, Musa; Kumar, Sanjiv; Pandey, Ashutosh; Lawrence, David M.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Yeager, Stephen

doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00172-z

i

Seasonal to multi-year soil moisture drought forecasting

2021
By Esit, Musa ; Kumar, Sanjiv ; Pandey, Ashutosh ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Esit, Musa ; Kumar, Sanjiv ; Pandey, Ashutosh ; Lawrence, David M. ; Rangwala, Imtiaz ; Yeager, Stephen
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

Soil moisture predictability on seasonal to decadal (S2D) continuum timescales over North America is examined from the Community Earth System Modeling (CESM) experiments. The effects of ocean and land initializations are disentangled using two large ensemble datasets—initialized and uninitialized experiments from the CESM. We find that soil moisture has significant predictability on S2D timescales despite limited predictability in precipitation. On sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales, precipitation variability is an order of magnitude greater than soil moisture, suggesting land surface processes, including soil moisture memory, reemergence, land–atmosphere interactions, transform a less predictable precipitation signal into a more predictable soil moisture signal.
Source:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00172-z
ISSN:

2397-3722
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:bee10e5b716f2e27b7df41608e718774d68d66392db90eacc312433b646afa63f5f54ee911a44152119298ac27bd95863b68c4d6c94c88a8eb92c15fe09f7b55
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68788/noaa_68788_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.17 MB ]

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