Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future

Rahat, Saiful Haque; Saki, Shah; Khaira, Ummul; Biswas, Nishan Kumar; Dollan, Ishrat Jahan; Wasti, Asphota; Miura, Yuki; Bhuiyan, Md Abul Ehsan; Ray, Patrick

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-65618-9

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Bracing for impact: how shifting precipitation extremes may influence physical climate risks in an uncertain future

2024
By Rahat, Saiful Haque ; Saki, Shah ; Khaira, Ummul ; ...

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Journal Title:

Scientific Reports
Personal Author:

Rahat, Saiful Haque ; Saki, Shah ; Khaira, Ummul ; Biswas, Nishan Kumar ; Dollan, Ishrat Jahan ; Wasti, Asphota ; Miura, Yuki ; Bhuiyan, Md Abul Ehsan ; Ray, Patrick
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; CPC (Climate Prediction Center)
Description:

As extreme precipitation intensifies under climate change, traditional risk models based on the ‘100-year return period’ concept are becoming inadequate in assessing real-world risks. In response, this nationwide study explores shifting extremes under non-stationary warming using high-resolution data across the contiguous United States. Results reveal pronounced variability in 100-year return levels, with Coastal and Southern regions displaying the highest baseline projections, and future spikes are anticipated in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and California. Exposure analysis indicates approximately 53 million residents currently reside in high-risk zones, potentially almost doubling and tripling under 2 °C and 4 °C warming. Drought frequency also rises, with over 37% of major farmland vulnerable to multi-year droughts, raising agricultural risks. Record 2023 sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an impending extreme El Niño event, demonstrating the need to account for natural climate variability. The insights gained aim to inform decision-makers in shaping adaptation strategies and enhancing the resilience of communities in response to evolving extremes.
Source:

Scientific Reports, 14(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65618-9
ISSN:

2045-2322
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:44ce69ded482c3e8b561111a874077fb72aa62d3d9640bde3bdc6fd13596c0c4b9be4cd5dd1b8bd8b085d554bef9bcd454701a124199e872d3a80502c6033ee1
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68779/noaa_68779_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 8.24 MB ]

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