Unveiling the Indian Ocean forcing on winter eastern warming – western cooling pattern over North America

Hou, Yurong; Xie, Shang-Ping; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Wang, Chunzai; Yoo, Changhyun; Deng, Kaiqiang; Sun, Weijun; Li, Xichen

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53921-y

i

Unveiling the Indian Ocean forcing on winter eastern warming – western cooling pattern over North America

2024
By Hou, Yurong ; Xie, Shang-Ping ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

Hou, Yurong ; Xie, Shang-Ping ; Johnson, Nathaniel C. ; Wang, Chunzai ; Yoo, Changhyun ; Deng, Kaiqiang ; Sun, Weijun ; Li, Xichen
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Description:

Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skillful at lead times of up to a year ahead of harvest for 15% and 30% of harvested areas, respectively. Forecasts are most skillful in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia for maize and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America for wheat. Wheat forecasts, furthermore, remain skillful at lead times of over 18 months ahead of harvest in some locations. Our results demonstrate that the potential for preseason crop yield forecasts is greater than previously appreciated.
Source:

Nature Communications, 15(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53921-y
ISSN:

2041-1723
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:aeb0121637e27f58ac113c170a07d5a45e1b44da13c641e26c66430b8626a87208c42a5a278c6166525da1b351a5359ca0f643675e34f8bc51894e6f5fc99e5b
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68756/noaa_68756_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.02 MB ]

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