The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends

Ma, Weiming; Wang, Hailong; Chen, Gang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Rasch, Philip J.; Fu, Qiang; Kravitz, Ben; Zou, Yufei; Cassano, John J.; Maslowski, Wieslaw

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5

i

The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends

2024
By Ma, Weiming ; Wang, Hailong ; Chen, Gang ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

Ma, Weiming ; Wang, Hailong ; Chen, Gang ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Lu, Jian ; Rasch, Philip J. ; Fu, Qiang ; Kravitz, Ben ; Zou, Yufei ; Cassano, John J. ; Maslowski, Wieslaw
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)
Description:

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.
Source:

Nature Communications, 15(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5
ISSN:

2041-1723
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:cd7d347e07408ad63fcf284032e46569d03039065ae0bfcc73d91214f82a6e04861d02f7a8412eb449d7108a33d7095b43f88e88a8f6bebe03a02f0c18fa6ea4
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68750/noaa_68750_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 5.76 MB ]

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