New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

McCrystall, Michelle R.; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Forbes, Bruce C.; Screen, James A.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y

i

New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

2021
By McCrystall, Michelle R. ; Stroeve, Julienne ; Serreze, Mark ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Nature Communications
Personal Author:

McCrystall, Michelle R. ; Stroeve, Julienne ; Serreze, Mark ; Forbes, Bruce C. ; Screen, James A.
NOAA Program & Office:

CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
Description:

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.
Source:

Nature Communications, 12(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
ISSN:

2041-1723
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:8090c56491cb9ae1541a42e4246c49960c53051a6aef734563aa71c202964ce402ea6e8fee4db14a5e02fb78cf98c3eb78e823bb8e66cab53e31d1a4ceb4cd3a
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68742/noaa_68742_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.16 MB ]

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